Contents
ROBIN MARRIS WELCOMES YOU TO THE WEBSITE
This site has been created for people who would like calm and accurate information about the Total Crime Rate in Britain (well, actually, England and Wales - Scotland and Northern Ireland have their own statistics).
It is also a forum for discussion and comment. If you would like to participate please e-mail me at robinmarris@btinternet.com. Argument based on logic and evidence especially welcomed. For more information about me please see http://www.robinmarris.com.
What is the current crime trend?
What has been the long-term trend?
What are the causes of the trends?
What are the prospects for the future?
How do we compare with other countries?
What are the general conclusions? What are their moral implications?
To help try and answer these questions I have created a set of interlocking computer spreadsheets which I call the British Crime Model. For short it is called the BCM.
Its an 'open', 'interactive' system meaning that if you have Microsoft Excel (or compatible) software you can download and use the model by clicking on the link;-
It is also a 'multi-causal' model. The truth is that research has found a large number of factors which significantly influence crime. By using what is called a 'simulation' method, more fully described later, I have incorporated every one (more than half a dozen, in fact) for which I can find a decent run of data.
It must be understood that the model can explain what happened in the past and if, but only if, it goes on working in the future, can it make succesful forecasts.
The rest of the Site contains a text describing and discussing the results of the Model, which is also supported by Question and Answer sub-sections on important detailed contributing topics. There are links to individual Q & As within the general text, but to access them collectively please click here.Please browse on for Chapter 1.
The contents of this website are a free service of Robin Marris
www.robinmarris.com
